"What does not change / is the will to change"
--Charles Olson, "The Kingfishers"

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Pay attention to IMF's track record

Dean Baker wants us to remember that the International Monetary Fund tends to fly blind -- a useful reminder given the IMF's attempts to involve itself in U.S. budget discussions. Here is his post:
The Washington Post ran an article highlighting warnings about the budget deficit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It would have been helpful to inform readers that the IMF completely missed the $8 trillion housing bubble, the collapse of which collapsed the U.S. economy, leading to the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

This background would be helpful to readers in assessing the importance of the IMF's warnings.

We should listen to what Baker has to say.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Fill 'er up

I stopped to fill the gas tank on my RAV4 this morning and, cough, it cost me $39.14, or $2.999 a gallon. That's a lot of pocket change to keep the rubber on the road, as they say. But is it too much?

I don't think so.

Like everyone else, I hate to pay high gas prices -- and high prices for anything -- but the question is whether higher gas and energy prices are bad for society as a whole.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. Free-marketers should agree (though, I suspect they won't), because higher energy prices in theory should alter behavior, lead people to drive less, conserve, invest in alternative energy or high-mpg cars, etc.

There are problems -- higher energy costs will hit the middle class and the poor to a greater degree -- that need to be addressed by government, including subsidies to energy users to encourage the move to efficiencies and use of alternative power, an end to oil company subsidies (as the president has proposed), planning and zoning rule changes, etc

The point is, we cannot expect not to see gas prices rise. It is inevitable, especially given how scarce gasoline is and how damaging its use is to the environment. We are going to pay for this scarceness and damage, either in money or in something more vital (resource wars will be bloody).
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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Knicks get back on track

The Knicks, as can be expected, have been wildly inconsistent -- two six-losing streaks and a long winning streak. But they are better by far than in recent years, even starting to show a willingness on occasion to play some "D".

Will they win a title this year? Obviously not. Will they get past the first round of the playoffs? Maybe -- if they get the Bulls, they have a legitimate chance.

Watching tonight's game leaves me questioning whether the Heat are going to go much farther. As the game crew kept reminding us -- and the Heat kept showing us -- this is a team that too often fails to play team ball. It does you no good in the long run if your two best players (two of the best five in the game) cannot mesh late in games. There was no offensive flow and too much one on one going on late (primarily from LeBron James, but also Dwayne Wade), which left the other four Heat players standing around.

In the playoffs against a seasoned and savvy Celtics team, that will be deadly.

Boston remains the beast of the East and the Lakers are still the team to beat for the title.

Cult of personality

I have been rather critical of the ineffectual Obama presidency -- which has produced some modest positive results, but not the change promised by the Obama candidacy.

As I've said -- quoting Chris Hedges and others -- he really is nothing more than a brand and his presidency offers the corporate state a more moderate face with which to preserve the prerogatives of capital.

That said, the focus on Obama has defanged the left by distracting us from the real work ahead. This piece from In These Times hits on this theme and should be a must read.
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Broken schools? Depends on where you live

I have been thinking hard on the charter plan being pushed by Gov. Chris Christie, a retread of the tired schools choice debate that has been going on nationally and pushed by free-market zealots for years.

Gov. Christie used a (flawed) Star-Ledger special report issued earlier this week to back up his contention that school choice works:
The report obtained by The Star-Ledger compared 2010 standardized test scores for charter schools against district schools. The scores were from grades 3 through 8, and 11th grade. That data is contained in a report expected to be released today by the state Department of Education.

The newspaper analysis shows 76 percent of charter school eighth grades outpaced performance in their districts in language arts, for example, as did 68 percent of fourth-grade classes in language arts, and 58 percent of fourth-grade classes in math. At the high school level, 69 percent of schools outperformed district classes in the language arts portion of the high school proficiency exam, and 54 percent outdid district classes in math.

There are about 73 charter schools operating in New Jersey now, most in urban areas, serving varying grade levels.
Bob Braun, the Ledger's fine columnist, reminds us that we must look at the charter numbers with a jaundiced eye. The report -- later issued by Christie -- did little more than prove "that the charter schools best able to exclude the neediest students got both the highest test scores," which is something charter critics have long argued. If the best students can migrate away from urban schools, it has a residual effect on the schools left behind.

From a statistical standpoint consider this:

We have a school district with 35 kids. The median test school is 70 (the student with the 18th highest score; 17 higher and 17 lower) and the average is 70 (meaning that, when you add all scores together and you divide by the number of students you get 70). If you remove the top six students -- say they average 90 -- then you move the median figure downward -- the median would be the 15th highest (14 higher and 14 lower). No change in results, but the median drops. Same with the average -- take the top six scores out and you are left with 29 students with a 66 average without anything else changing.

Braun calls school choice another broken promise to the state's neediest children:
School choice—that’s the latest ticket to "equal educational opportunity," according to the governor. Finally, a solution that won’t require children to be with other children who don’t look like them. A solution that won’t require a lot more money or state effort.

But it’s not helping, either. It’s just further isolating the neediest children. Charters enroll far fewer very poor children with educational problems than do the traditional schools.

And, while a few charters might be helping a small number of inner-city children, their test scores, like those of traditional schools, still lag behind the rest of the state.
Addressing the failings of poor schools will take far more of a commitment of resources than we seem willing to provide and it will mean addressing the long-standing racial, ethnic and class segregation that has plagued this allegedly liberal state. But then, no one seems to be all that concerned with fixing things for he poorest of the poor.
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Political World: Death penalty be not proud

As promised, my death penalty column is up on four Patch sites -- here is a link to the South Brunswick site.
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When did New Jersey move to the North Pole

The view from our front window.

The pool is about 5 feet tall.
Gives you some perspective.
Today's first post is a short rant -- very short. I hate snow. I hate snow. I hate snow.

Another foot on the ground, impassible streets -- I hate snow.

Is that clear?
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Who is U.S. government rooting for in Egypt

Hosni Mubarak is considered a U.S. ally, a friend in the war on terror and someone we can trust when dealing with Israel.

He's also a brutal dictator.

Now, with unrest in the streets of Cairo and Mubarak cracking down, we will learn which value is more important to the American oligarchy. Are we committed to the spread of democracy or will we attempt to prop Mubarak up, if he seems to be teetering?

My suspicion is that, despite our grand democratic rhetoric, we will side with the dictator. This is just a gut feeling, but given that we attempted to shut down Hamas even after the organization won what most observers considered to be a fair election and that we seem to care little about who runs most countries unless they are under out control, I just don't see democracy as our primary objective.

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Brief thoughs on Charlie Louvin


It is difficult to explain how important Charlie Louvin was to the history of country music.

Recording with his brother, Ira, the duo made some of the greatest music the genre (or any genre) has seen -- as the above video can attest.



I was lucky enough to see Charlie Louvin a few years ago when he opened for Lucinda Williams on Long Island and the did several duets that were magical. I have a CD that he signed and I listen to on more than a rare occasion.


Louvin's death leaves a void, but the music lives on and will live on.

(Check out Livin', Lovin', Losin', a remarkable tribute album to get a sense of the duo's importance -- or just pick up some Louvin Brothers songs.)
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Death penalty back on table in New Jersey

Eleven Republican Senators want the death penalty reinstated for the worst of the worst. I disagree -- state-sanctioned murder is still murder, we can never be sure that the man or woman we are killing is guilty, there is no way to protect the poor and minorities against the biases built into the syste.

See my column tomorrow on East Windsor Patch.
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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

How to say very little in 75 minutes

So, the president spoke for 75 minutes and pretty much said what was expected -- though he did mention, but not say a lot about, Iraq and Afghanistan. The gist, when the thousands of words are boiled down, is this: Bipartisanship good; partisanship bad. Compromise good, even on core beliefs; steadfastness, bad.

Yes, centrism at work.
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The state of the presidency

As is always the case with a nominally liberal president, like Barack Obama, there are expected to be carrots to be had for progressives in tonight's State of the Union address.

There is to be planned spending on education and high-tech transit options, clean energy and broadband. But what was is not to be said and what he is expected to offer to counter his small gifts to his liberal base speak much more loudly about this White House.

First, Obama is expected to continue his deficit-hawk rhetoric, calling for a five-year freeze on some categories of spending. But more importantly, the president will leave out some of the most important issues facing the nation -- the two wars that we seem incapable of extricating ourselves from, immigration, the proliferation of unnecessary handguns and rifles and the need for serious structural economic reform.

Centrism at its unfortunate best, I guess.
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The pleasures of old vinyl

I've boxed up a number of old vinyl records for sale, most of which I'll never listen to again. At the same time, I've held onto some vinyl that I either have sentimental attachments to -- old Beatles, Dylan and Springsteen, for instance -- and some records that have yet to hit digital.

My wife, for Hanukkah and Christmas, bought me a neat little device that is allowing me to transfer some of this material to my iPod -- an interesting array of old punk and '60s and '70s obscurities that I used to listen to obsessively when the turntable was a regular part of my life.

Over the last couple of days, I've transferred some long-lost records:

Jack Lee, Jack Lee's Greatest Hit Vol. 1. A former member of The Nerves (which featured Peter Case, as well), Lee put out a solo album in the early 1980s. It got no traction and, despite an ad campaign in Rolling Stone (where it came to my attention), it disappeared. Too bad. The album features some great rave-ups and Lee's version of "Hanging on the Telephone," which he wrote.

Jim Carroll Band, Dry Dreams. Everyone rightly remembers Catholic Boy, often called the last great punk album, but Carroll's follow up deserves its own space in the post-punk pantheon. (Album No. 3, I Write Your Name, which I have on cassette, has some moments but is probably deservedly lost to the digital age.)

Bob Seger. Seger used to have a band called the Bob Seger System, which put out three classics of pre-punk Detroit boogie -- Noah, Mongrel and Ramblin' Gamblin' Man (there may be others, but these are the ones I have) -- that may not be lost, but deserve a much greater audience than they have at this point. Same for his Smokin' OPs, an album of covers, and Seven.

Good Rats, Tasty. Yes, you can find some of their material on disc (through the band's web site), but I have the vinyl and now it's on my iPod.

Great stuff. I look forward to moving Mink DeVille, Tom Verlaine and some of the obscure wonders in my old vinyl collection to digital.

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Monday, January 24, 2011

Thoughts on Olbermann

I was pondering how to respond to the news that Keith Olbermann was leaving MSNBC, ending his run on Countdown, when I read this posting from Will Bunch this morning. He says it a lot better than I could.
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Friday, January 21, 2011

Job-focused, but not labor-focused

President Barack Obama appears to be turning his attention to creating jobs.

One might think that, given the state of the American economy and the pain being felt by the American worker, that it would have been a prime focus of the first two years of his administration. I would argue that it was, though he was unsuccessful largely due to an unwillingness to buck the Washington consensus or castigate Republicans, creating a stimulus that was too small and too focused on tax cuts to actually do much good.

So now, as Paul Volcker steps down as an "outside" economic adviser (not exactly sure what that means, unless it refers to the fact that Volcker was basically ignored), Obama is creating a new panel that will be charged with creating jobs.

And at its helm will be General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt.
Mr. Immelt will be chairman of the new Council on Jobs and Competitiveness that Mr. Obama intends to create by executive order. In a statement issued shortly after midnight, Mr. Obama said he wanted the council to “focus its work on finding new ways to encourage the private sector to hire and invest in American competitiveness.”
Immelt said that the panel will include a broad range of economic players, including labor, but it is unclear what role the people who actually do the heavy lifting will have. It seems unlikely, for instance, that the panel or the president will do much if anything to address the serious power imbalance that has developed in recent decades between labor and management or the decline in union membership that has plagued workers for years, an imbalance highlighted in a column by David Leonhardt in yesterday's Times (and the focus of an upcoming column by me in The Progressive Populist). The "basic structure of the American economy," which has led to three jobless recoveries in the last 20 years, is "an important factor," he says -- and one made all the more devastating by the imbalance of power between labor and management.
Relative to the situation in most other countries — or in this country for most of the last century — American employers operate with few restraints. Unions have withered, at least in the private sector, and courts have grown friendlier to business. Many companies can now come much closer to setting the terms of their relationship with employees, letting them go when they become a drag on profits and relying on remaining workers or temporary ones when business picks up.
Just consider the main measure of corporate health: profits. In Canada, Japan and most of Europe, corporate profits have still not recovered to precrisis levels. In the United States, profits have more than recovered, rising 12 percent since late 2007.

For corporate America, the Great Recession is over. For the American work force, it’s not.
I'm hoping that Immelt and his panel can help, but unless labor has more than a token seat at the table I just don't expect much to happen.

 
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Sunday, January 09, 2011

The shape of things to come

It was inevitable that something like this would happen, given the way our discourse has descended into the fetishizing of violence. We have had politicians (Sarah Palin, Sharon Angle) and pundits (Bill O'Reilly) use language and symbols that strip the stigma from this kind of behavior. When you place a politician in a crosshairs, as Palin did on her website, or call for "second-amendment remedies" as Angle did, you inevitably empower those with a violent streak to act.

What politicians like Palin and Angle forget is that words matter, they have real meaning and impact. I'm not calling for censorship, but we need to get past the sloppy (I'm being generous) use of language in the political realm and back to a respect for the meanings of what we say.

Friday, January 07, 2011

Smarter than the average staffs

In the past, when the Mets have turned ugly on the field, they also have turned ugly off it as they compiled a collection bad attitudes and block heads that made it tough to view them as lovable losers.

And while he there is no guarantee that the current team will win or be likable, at least it will be brainy. And that may be all we have to look forward to.
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The long economic slog continues

If this is what recovery looks like, we should stop calling it a recovery.

The good news, as The New York Times reports, is that economy created 103,000 jobs in December; the bad news is that the number is far below what will be needed just to start chipping away at the jobs lost during this long and painful recession. And that does not take into account the reality that the economy needs to create several hundred thousand jobs monthly just to keep up with population growth.

The real problem in the recession, however, is not just unemployment, but long-term unemployment -- the folks who not only have lost their jobs but remain out of work for long stretches.
The percentage of the unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer edged up last month to 44.3 percent, about the same level as a year ago. Other indicators, such as the length of the average work week, remained stagnant.
All told, one in six Americans is either unemployed (either actively seeking jobs or having given up)  under-employed. The brutal reality is everyone knows someone who is out of work, whether it is a former co-worker, a friend, a neighbor or a relative, and most of us know many.

And yet, we are faced with the prospect of a Republican Congress promising to grind government to a halt, ensuring that the only entity with the economic muscle to pump money into the economy -- through public works jobs, unemployment insurance, aid to states to keep state and local workers employed -- will remain on the sidelines.

President Obama deserves a tremendous amount of blame for this, of course, because of his reluctance to be bold and use the bully pulpit. He allowed the Republicans to gut his stimulus program, back pedaled on bailing out homeowners and has had a surprisingly difficult time explaining himself, given that his greatest strength as a campaigner was his ability to speak to voters.

The economic problems will dog us, with damaging effects throughout different sectors of the economy and the society, without much in the way of a safety net to catch us before we come crashing down. We will be forced to rely on soup kitchens and food pantries, SRO hotels and the like -- or many of us will.

We may not end up wearing a barrel or riding the rails to chase migrant work, but we do face a 21st-Century version of these cliches.

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Thursday, January 06, 2011

Translation of the funding fight

Bob Braun's column today cut through the nonsense and offered a basic translation of the arguments made yesterday before the state Supreme Court. The issue, as he pointed out, is a political one:
Here’s the real question: Will a court under siege buy into the governor’s political views about spending or will it find the collective nerve to tell Chris Christie his oath of office requires him to obey all constitutional mandates, including the one to maintain a thorough and efficient school system?

It’s simple: Without the justices’ permission, the governor’s budget, adopted by the Legislature, cut $1 billion from a school aid formula the court, just a year before, ruled constitutional if funded. To cut that billion, Christie—and lawmakers—had to make choices.

Like not raising taxes on rich people. A political choice.

Braun's point, essentially, is that all budgeting choices are political choices, meaning they come down to specific policies and priorities. The governor opted to slash school spending rather than ask New Jersey's top tax bracket to pay a bit more to fund government.

As Braun points out -- and I've written numerous times -- our elected officials at all levels of government balance myriad interests in crafting budgets. What is a permissible level of taxation? Who should pay? How? What kinds of programs should we provide? Which should get more money and which should get less? These are political questions and need to be hashed out in the political arena, honestly and openly.

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Framing public workers

It is interesting the way in which every story on the state pension problems are framed. The assumption in every single one is that the problems stem from the system and the workers and that the failure of elected officials to 1.) be honest and conservative in their estimates of the pension system's long-term value and 2.) make the requisite payments into the system really is only a minor failing.

But the reality is that the last time the state actually paid what it owed to the system was in 1992 -- under Jim Florio. Seven governors and Legislatures of both parties have been shorting the system over the last 18 years. That includes $3.1 billion this year by Chris Christie.

The massive shortfall in what we expect to have to pay and what we will have in the bank to distribute has nothing to do with the people who will get the pensions and everything to do with the people managing our state and local budgets.

Does this mean that we should not look at the pension system to determine whether the payouts going forward make sense? No. Of course we should. But we have to be honest about what created the mess before we can move forward.

The other frame is that public workers are robbing the rest of us and we should tear them down. That's just a foolish race to the bottom. Instead, we should be fighting to rebuild our own pension and health programs so that we get what the public worker gets. But that is a debate for another post.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Alomar enters Hall (won't wear Mets hat)

He failed miserably when he arrived at Shea, but there should never have been any doubts that Robbie Alomar was going to the Hall of Fame. Alomar was one of the best to ever play his position, better than anyone who played in her era and today's announcement was a year overdue.

As for the others: I won't begrudge Bert Blyleven's entrance, though I am not sure he belongs in the hall. Two others Jack Morris, a top-notch pitcher, and shortstop Barry Larkin are close. I would vote for Larkin, who was the best all-around shortstop of his era -- the years between Ripken/Ozzie Smith and the current Jeter/A-Rod group. Morris is a closer call, like Blyleven, because his numbers do not jump out and say Hall. But there were few pitchers on his level during his prime and he was a gutty winner.

So congrats to Alomar and Blyleven.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2011

A '70s pop masterpiece was his legacy

It always was the sax line that got me, like the sax in Lou Reed's "Walk on the Wild Side," a rare sax solo that captures the memory.

And while Gerry Rafferty didn't play the solo, he wrote the basic melody and the song the sax made famous. "Baker Street," though, was more than the solo; it was a shimmering bit of mid-'70s pop that stands among the best music of its decade. That Rafferty managed only a couple of minor hits from the same album -- the underrated City to City -- ultimately doesn't matter. What matters is that he gave us "Baker Street" and "Stuck in the Middle" (recorded with Stealer's Wheel), a feat few can claim.

Rest in peace, Mr. Rafferty.

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    Monday, January 03, 2011

    The correct response is 'Hell no!'

    John Nichols, in a useful rejoinder to so much of the economic and political nonsense flying around as the GOP readies to take control of the House, that it is the people who created the mess we are in who should pay to fix it.

    Our sputtering economy and exhausted federal budget was not caused by entitlement spending, but by a regulatory climate that turned the financial markets into Atlantic City casinos and two endless wars that are daily sucking the cash from our bank accounts and leaving the blood of soldiers and civilians on both sides to stain the countrysides.

    And yet, we still hear from the "Washington elites ... that the U.S. had spent itself into a financial mess" and that "it was going to be necessary to put Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other social programs at risk to balance the books."

    That is both foolish and immoral.

    As Nichols says,
    there is a place for fiscal responsibility. But there is also a place for moral responsibility. Those who created the mess should shoulder the burden of cleaning it up.  Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid did not create this crisis, war profiteering and Wall Street speculation did. So before any working family sacrifices, the first demand should be that the profiteers and the speculators pay for their crisis.

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    East Brunswick: Every town New Jersey

    The East Brunswick Township Council is preparing for what it expects will be a nightmare budget season -- which is exactly what every town in the state should be expecting to face. The reason? About 15-18 years of games and gimmicks at the state level that has made it impossible for the state to help local government and a current governor with an ideological predisposition to slash and burn.

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    Let the games begin

    The Republicans who have taken over the House of Representatives have scheduled a vote to repeal the Obama healthcare law, a maneuver guaranteed to fail while also winning them political points among their paranoid base.

    The Democrats are -- finally -- attacking the anti-democratic filibuster, a maneuver that will raise the ire of every single Republican in the Senate.

    And this is just the beginning. Things are not going to get any less ugly anytime soon.
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